Model formulas: Reach 2 logistic model ln(p/(1-p)) = 0.26 + 0.044*WtmpD1 - 0.036*AtmpD1 + 0.0014*Hours - 0.23*log(Hours+0.0001) p = probability of exceeding safety threshold; WtmpD1 = Previous 24hr average water temp (F); AtmpD1 = previous 24hr average air temp (F); Hours = Hours since last rain Reach 3 logistic model ln(p/(1-p)) = 1.41 + 0.026*WtmpD1 - 0.0007*PARD2 + 0.0009*Hours - 0.302*log(Hours+0.0001) + 0.0015*FlowD2 - log(FlowD2) p = probability of exceeding safety threshold; WtmpD1 = Previous 24hr average water temp (F); PARD2 = previous 48hr average PAR; Hours = Hours since last rain; FlowD2 = previous 48hr average flow Reach 4 logistic model ln(p/(1-p)) = 3.65 + 0.025*WtmpD1 - 0.664*PARD2 + 0.0014*Hours - 0.343*log(Hours+0.0001) p = probability of exceeding safety threshold; WtmpD1 = Previous 24hr average water temp (F); PARD2 = previous 48hr average PAR; Hours = Hours since last rain Reach 5 logistic model ln(p/(1-p)) = -3.18 + 3.94*RainD2 - 1.62*RainD7 + 1.28*log(FlowD1) - 0.34*WindD1 - 0.21*WtmpD1 p = probability of exceeding safety threshold; RainD2 = Previous 48hr total rainfall; RainD7 = previous 7-day total rainfall FlowD1 = Previous 24hr average riverflow; WindD1 = previous 24hr average windspeed WtmpD1 = previous 24hr average water temp |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||